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"Moreira, Mauricio Mesquita"
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Trade liberalisation in Brazil: Creating or exporting jobs?
Using the growth accounting and factor content approaches, this article looks at the impact of trade liberalisation on the structure and level of employment in Brazil over the 1990-97 period. The results support the argument that trade liberalisation in developing countries have a negative short-term impact on employment - relatively small in Brazil's case - which tends to be outweighed, in the long run, by a more labour-intensive output mix.
Journal Article
Future Scenarios for Latin America’s Relations with China and India
As the chapters in this volume attest, there is no one Latin America–China or Latin America–India relationship. Different countries in the region have engaged with China and India in different ways and to different degrees, with a correspondingly wide spectrum of results. In the case of China, the region’s relationships are entering a new phase after the initial boom, with expectations and assessments on both sides adjusting to recent developments. In the case of India, the relationship still consists mainly of expectations: despite great potential, economic and diplomatic ties remain tentative, although India’s new reform-minded government could give
Book Chapter
Brazil’s Trade Policy
After a half century of overtly inward-oriented policies, Brazil finally moved to open its trade regime in the early 1990s. Being one of the last countries to make this move in a region that notoriously lagged behind East Asia, Brazil was quick to implement a comprehensive trade liberalization program that had strong unilateral and regional components. In roughly five years, tariffs were slashed, nontariff barriers (NTBs) were removed, and Mercosur became a reality. Later on, even the possibility of a free trade zone for the hemisphere was entertained.
Yet this initial momentum lost steam in the mid-1990s, undermined by inhospitable
Book Chapter
Revisiting the Effect of the Great Liberalization on the Growth of Latin America and the Caribbean, 1980-2010
As Latin America and the Caribbeans “Great Liberalization” reaches its 30th anniversary, we revisit the trade and growth debate by updating and expanding Estevadeordal and Taylors 2013 paper. To better understand the regions heterogeneity of policies and outcomes, we extend this analysis to include a larger sample of countries, a new and more disaggregated bilateral product-level tariff dataset; a longer timespan; and a country-sector analysis. The results indicate that liberalization is likely to have made a significant contribution to the acceleration in growth observed in the postliberalization periodan extra 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points on annual per-capita growth-driven by lower tariffs on capital and intermediate goods (as suggested by Solows growth model) and by the manufacturing sector.
Paper
Regional Integration: What Is in It for CARICOM?/Comments
Economic and political integration has long been a painful issue on the Caribbean agenda. Countries in the region have since raised the stakes, aiming at deeper, broader, and more complex forms of integration. In 1973, they established the Caribbean Community and Common Market (CARICOM), which sought to establish a customs union and policy and functional cooperation. The literature on regional agreements suggests that such pacts are inspired by the interplay of political and economic arguments. The political motivations range from regional security to bargaining power. In the Caribbean, where all but three countries are classified by the United Nation as microstates, the motivation behind regional integration arises from a deep-rooted economic perception about size constraints on development. Economic theory lends qualified support to this concern, but the theory does not contend that the advantages of size are absolute. Two of the main pillars of CARICOM's openness are being rapidly eroded by the proliferation of preferential agreements and unfavorable rulings by the World Trade Organization, together with the growing competition for aid and FDI.
Journal Article
Trade, Productivity, Innovation, and Employment: Lessons from the Impact of Chinese Competition on Manufacturing in Brazil
This paper uses the sudden surge in Chinese competition faced by Brazil's manufacturers in the 2000s to revisit the findings from the literature on how productivity, innovation, and employment were impacted by the Great Liberalizationa period of massive trade opening in the early 1990s in Latin America. Using manufacturing firm-level data and sectoral variation of Chinese competition, we focus on the most intense period of the shock -2000 to 2013- and on its procompetitive and employment effects. The results reinforce some of the key findings of the earlier literature, notably the positive, procompetitive effect of trade on total factor productivity (TFP). However, as in the 1990s, these gains do not seem to have been robust enough to prevent the countrys TFP performance from being dismal. Likewise, they seem to be more consistent with level effects than growth effects. Inconclusive results on innovation also seem to point in this direction. The estimated effects on employment point to a relatively small negative shock, not unlike that of the early 1990s, that was centered on low-skilled labor and was consistent with the countrys relative abundance of natural resources. Overall, the results seem to underline the limits of trade policy in boosting employment and long-term productivity growth. Policymakers should manage their expectations accordingly.
Paper